Predicted Car Reliability 2011 - Consumer Reports' Top Ten Autos

Recently Consumer Reports released charts of its predicted short-term reliability of sedans, coupes, convertibles, wagons, minivans, sport-utility vehicles, and pickup trucks. Its predicted reliability is based on the infrequency of serious problems within the three preceding model years - 2008, 2009 and 2010 - or fewer when an insufficient data history limits model year inclusion.

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In this article I list the Top Ten by CR's predicted reliability for model year 2011. Not included in this list of CR's most reliable are those automobiles with only a one-year data history, as a reliability predicted on the basis of one year may be quite inaccurate.

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The Top 10, 12 by tie or near tie, are:
The Toyota Yaris, a small sedan or 2-door or 4-door hatchback
The Honda CR-V, a small sport-utility vehicle
Toyota Motor Corporation's Lexus LX, a large luxury SUV
The Honda Fit, a small 4-door hatchback
Toyota's Scion xD, a small 4-door hatchback
The Honda Civic coupe
Honda Motor Company's Acura RL, a luxury sedan
The V6 Toyota RAV4, a small SUV
Honda's front-wheel-drive Acura TL, an upscale sedan
The Toyota FJ Cruiser, a midsize SUV
The Mitsubishi Outlander, a small SUV
The 4-cylinder Toyota RAV4, a small SUV.

Toyota Motor Corporation accounts for 6 of the 12 most reliable, Honda Motor Company for 5, and Mitsubishi Motor Corporation for 1.

The Toyota Yaris and its predecessor, the Echo, have an excellent long-term reliability history. Their combined 2010 Auto Reliability GPA, for model years 2000 to 2009, is a perfect 4.00 over a 9-year data history. Other 2010 Auto Reliability GPAs of the best of model year 2011 are:

Honda CR-V: 3.63 over 10 years of data
Lexus LX: 3.79 over 9 years
Honda Fit: 4.00 over 3 years
Scion xD: 4.00 over 2 years
Honda Civic coupe: N/A, but the Honda Civic sedan has a GPA of 3.75 over 10 years
Acura RL: 3.27 over 7 years
V6 Toyota RAV4: 2.95 over 4 years
Acura TL: 3.25 over 10 years
Toyota FJ Cruiser: 4.00 over 2 years
Mitsubishi Outlander: 2.88 over 5 years
4-cylinder Toyota RAV4: 3.88 over 10 years.

Predicted Car Reliability 2011 - Consumer Reports' Top Ten Autos

Consumer Reports

Car Brand Reliability Rankings 2011 - Consumer Reports' Top 10

Consumer Reports' recently announced its 2011 reliability ranking of car brands. By predicted short-term reliability, CR's top 10 brands for model year 2011 are, in descending order:

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Scion
Porsche
Acura
Honda
Infiniti
Toyota
Subaru
Volvo
Lexus
Ford.

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Toyota Motor Corporation's three car lines - Scion, Toyota, and Lexus - and Honda Motor Company's Acura and Honda have consistently placed within top 10 lists for short-term, mid-term, and longer term reliability. Nissan's Infiniti line is often among this very select group as well.

With regard to best cars, the Scion xD, a small hatchback, is the Scion line's highest ranked model, the Toyota Yaris, a small sedan or hatchback, is the Toyota brand's highest ranked model, and the Lexus LX, a large luxury SUV, is Lexus' best. The Scion xD has a 2010 Auto Reliability Grade Point Average for the first 4 years of a perfect 4.00, as does the Yaris hatchback. The first 4-year 2010 Auto Reliability GPA of the Lexus LX is 3.67.

Acura's best is the Acura RL, a sedan, and Honda's best is the Honda CR-V, a small SUV. Infiniti's best is the all-wheel-drive Infiniti G sedan. The first 4-year Auto Reliability GPA of the CR-V is 3.75; the RL and G sedan have more modest GPAs.

Porsche's ranking by CR's predicted short-term reliability took a jump, from 9th place for the 2010 model year to 2nd place for the 2011 model year. However, its highest rated model for 2011 was its lowest rated model for 2010, suggesting that the data for this car marque may be too thin to give stable results.

Volvo's ranking also took a sizable leap - from 18th place to 8th place - as did Ford's - from 16th place to 10th place. Both indicate that Ford Motor Company has been quite earnest about improving quality.

Outside the top 10, both the Hyundai line, 11th place, and the Kia line, 13th place, outranked all of the lines of General Motors Corporation and Chrysler LLC, as they did last year as well. By CR's Rank Change from Last Year, GM's Chevrolet line rose 3 as its Buick line fell 3.

Consumer Reports' predicted reliability for a car brand is based on the reliability performance of the brand's models within the 3 most recent model years. A model's reliability is a measure of the model's infrequency of reported serious problems.

CR's reliability rankings are closely followed by many as they are based on an infrequency of serious problems, rather than complaints that may be on rather trivial matters.

Car Brand Reliability Rankings 2011 - Consumer Reports' Top 10

Consumer Reports

Predicted Car Reliability 2011 - Consumer Reports' Top 10 Small Cars

Yearly Consumer Reports predicts the short-term reliability of motor vehicle models for the new model year. This predicted reliability is based on the infrequency of serious problems in the three preceding model years, as reported in a survey of its subscribers.

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When data are lacking or insufficient for one or more model years, the predicted short-term reliability is based on fewer than the last three model years. In some instances, it is based on only one year - primarily when a model is new or newly redesigned.

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By the reliability predictions for model year 2011, CR's Top Ten small cars are listed below. The list omits all models whose reliability prediction is based on only one year.

Consumer Reports' Top 10 Small Cars

The Toyota Yaris, a sedan or 2-door or 4-door hatchback The Honda Fit, a 4-door hatchback Toyota Motor Corporation's Scion xD, a 4-door hatchback The Honda Civic coupe The Honda Civic sedan Toyota's Scion xB, a boxy wagon The non-turbo Subaru Impreza, a sedan or wagon The Mazda3 sedan The Toyota Corolla, a sedan The Hyundai Elantra wagon

CR's next 5 are also of noteworthy reliability. They are:

The Toyota Matrix, a wagon The Mazda3 hatchback The Nissan Sentra The Suzuki SX4, a sedan, a 4-door hatchback or wagon The Ford Focus sedan.

Of the Top 10, Toyota Motor Corporation accounts for 4, Honda Motor Company for 3, and Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd. (Subaru), Mazda Motor Corporation, and Hyundai Motor Company each account for one.

Below are the 2010 Auto Reliability GPAs, based on last year's survey, of the above best. In most instances, the GPAs are based on more than the three most-recent model years, and may be a preferable guide for those consumers planning an intermediate- or long-term ownership.

Toyota Yaris/Echo: a perfect 4.00 over a 9-year data history Honda Fit: 4.00 over 3 years Scion xD: 4.00 over 2 years Honda Civic coupe: N/A Honda Civic sedan: 3.75 over 10 years Scion xB: 3.78 over 5 years Non-turbo Subaru wagon: 3.02 over 9 years Mazda3 sedan: 3.33 over 6 years Toyota Corolla: 3.81 over 10 years Hyundai Elantra sedan and wagon: 2.38 over 10 years Toyota Matrix: 3.40 over 7 years Mazda3 hatchback: N/A Nissan Sentra: 2.00 over 9 years Suzuki SX4: 3.00 over 2 years Ford Focus sedan: 2.38 over 10 years.

Consumer Reports' 2010 survey provides data on 1.3 million vehicles. As it queries for serious problems, it is highly regarded by many consumers who plan to purchase a used, as well as new, vehicle. Reliability ratings for used cars based on its 2010 survey will out in very late 2010 and early and mid 2011, if past publication history holds in the present.

CR's current predictions of short-term reliability for model year 2011 are based on model years 2008, 2009, and 2010.

Predicted Car Reliability 2011 - Consumer Reports' Top 10 Small Cars

Consumer Reports

Car Quality - Consumer Reports' Reliability Versus JD Power's Dependability

This article examines the contrast between Consumer Reports' reliability ranking and J. D. Power and Associates' "dependability" ranking of car brands. To make the comparison, the Hummer, Jaguar, and Land Rover brands are eliminated from the J. D. Power ranking, as they do not appear in the Consumer Reports ranking.

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The contrast between Consumer Reports' 2010 reliability ranking of auto brands, based on serious problems reported in 2009 for model years 2007 through 2009, and J. D. Power and Associates' 2010 "dependability" ranking of auto brands, based on complaints reported for 3-year-old automobiles, is quite stark. A couple of examples demonstrate the point.

Consumer Reports

By infrequency of serious problems reported by Consumer Reports' subscribers, the Scion line is the most reliable brand available on the North American market. However, by infrequency of complaints, the Scion brand is ranked 28, or 5 from the bottom, by J. D. Power.

And by infrequency of complaints, Buick is ranked number 3 by J. D. Power, but by infrequency of serious problems, the Buick line is ranked 19, or 15 from the bottom, by Consumer Reports.

Below is a list of the 33 lines appearing in both studies and the absolute value of the difference in their ranks.

Scion: |1 - 28| = 27
Honda: |2 - 7| = 5
Toyota: |3 - 6| = 3
Infiniti: |4 - 13| = 9
Acura: |5 - 10| = 5
Mitsubishi: |6 - 29| = 23
Lexus: |7 - 4| = 3
Hyundai: |8 - 11| = 3
Porsche: |9 - 1| = 8
Mercury: |10 - 5| = 5
Saab: |11 - 15| = 4
Subaru: |12 - 14| = 2
Suzuki: |13 - 33| = 20
Kia: |14 - 20| = 6
Mazda: |15 - 27| = 12
Ford: |16 - 8| = 8
Nissan: |17 - 23| = 6
Volvo: |18 - 21| = 3
Buick: |19 - 3| = 16
Lincoln: |20 - 2| = 18
Volkswagen: |21 - 32| = 11
Pontiac: |22 - 26| = 4
Mercedes-Benz: |23 - 9| = 14
Audi: |24 - 24| = 0
Chevrolet: |25 - 22| = 3
BMW: |26 - 17| = 9
Mini: |27 - 30| = 3
GMC: |28 - 18| = 10
Saturn: |29 - 16| = 13
Jeep: |30 - 31| = 1
Dodge: |31 - 25| = 6
Cadillac: |32 - 12| = 20
Chrysler: |33 - 19| = 14

Twelve (more than one-third) of the above differences are in the double digits.

The very sizable differences in the rankings of many brands likely arise from what the two studies measure - serious problems versus complaints. The complaints may be secondary, tertiary, or even trivial in nature, such as color, size, shape, location, or ease of use of visors, knobs, buttons, levers, or latches, although how J. D. Power screens complaints, if at all, is not set forth in its press releases.

This is not to say that the color, size, shape, location, or ease of use of visors, knobs, buttons, levers, or latches is insignificant; however, most consumers would likely not consider such to be of equal importance to an infrequency of serious problems and would not term such a measure of dependability.

Another difference between the two studies that might account for some part of the difference in car brand ranking is that Consumer Reports' brand ranking is based on automobile performance for the first 3 years while J. D. Power's brand ranking is based on automobile satisfaction in the 3rd year. However, the age difference is likely not the reason for any sizable difference between the rankings, as CR's 0-to-3-year ranking has only modest differences with the brand ranking given by the 2010 Auto Reliability GPA for 2-to-6-year-old vehicles from model years 2004 to 2007, as the absolute values of the differences in rank between the two shown below indicate.

Scion: |1 - 2| = 1
Honda: |2 - 1| = 1
Toyota: |3 - 3| = 0
Infiniti: |4 - 6| = 2
Acura: |5 - 4| = 1
Mitsubishi: |6 - 8| = 2
Lexus: |7 - 5| = 2
Hyundai: |8 - 13| = 5
Porsche: |9 - 9| = 0
Mercury: |10 - 10| = 0
Saab: |11 - 26| = 17
Subaru: |12 - 7| = 5
Suzuki: |13 - 19| = 6
Kia: |14 - 20| = 6
Mazda: |15 - 11| = 4
Ford: |16 - 18| = 2
Nissan: |17 - 16| = 1
Volvo: |18 - 15| = 3
Buick: |19 - 12| = 7
Lincoln: |20 - 14| = 6
Volkswagen: |21 - 22| = 1
Pontiac: |22 - 24| = 2
Mercedes-Benz: |23 - 21| = 2
Audi: |24 - 30| = 6
Chevrolet: |25 - 28| = 3
BMW: |26 - 17| = 9
Mini: |27 - 33| = 6
GMC: |28 - 29| = 1
Saturn: |29 - 25| = 4
Jeep: |30 - 31| = 1
Dodge: |31 - 32| = 1
Cadillac: |32 - 23| = 9
Chrysler: |33 - 27| = 6

All of these differences are in the single digits, save for Saab's sizable 17, a difference that suggests that the Saab line may offer too little data for a stable reliability rating or ranking.

One useful way for the consumer to utilize both the Consumer Reports survey and the J. D. Power survey is to identify those brands that appear in the Top Ten of both rankings. The Top Ten brands that are common to the two studies offer both a low frequency of serious problems and a low frequency of complaints.

Within the Top Ten of both lists are the brands:

Honda
Toyota
Honda Motor Company's Acura
Toyota Motor Corporation's Lexus
Porsche
Ford Motor Company's Mercury, soon to be retired.

These five marques appear as well in the Top Ten by the 2010 Auto Reliability GPA for the vehicular age range 2-to-6 years.

Car Quality - Consumer Reports' Reliability Versus JD Power's Dependability

Consumer Reports

Car Reliability 2011 - Consumer Reports' Best Cars

Each year Consumer Reports predicts the reliability of vehicle models based on the reported performance over the preceding 3 years, or fewer years if data are limited, as they are for newer models such as the Ford Fusion. The best small cars, family cars, upscale/luxury cars, minivan, small SUVs, midsize SUVs, Luxury SUVs, and pickup trucks by CR's predicted infrequency of serious problems is given below.

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In the small car category, Honda and Toyota vehicles dominate. The five best small cars of 2011 are:

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Toyota Yaris, a sedan or 2-door or 4-door hatchback
Honda Fit, a 4-door hatchback
Toyota Motor Corporation's Scion xD, a 4-door hatchback
Honda Civic Coupe
Honda Civic Sedan.

For comparison, last year's 2010 Auto Reliability Grade Point Averages (GPAs) of these models for model years 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009 are:

Toyota Yaris Hatchback: a perfect 4.00
Honda Fit: 4.00
Scion xD: 4.00
Honda Civic Coupe: N/A
Honda Civic Sedan: 3.50.

In the category of family cars, Ford Motor Company captures first and second place for 2011 predicted reliability. The two are:

Ford Fusion Hybrid
Ford Fusion with a V6 engine and front-wheel drive.

The 2010 Auto Reliability GPAs of these models are:

Ford Fusion Hybrid: 4.00 (based on only a one-year data history)
Ford Fusion with a V6 and fwd: 3.75.

In the category of upscale/luxury cars, Honda and Toyota account for all four in the list. These are:

Honda Motor Company's Acura RL,
Honda's Acura TL
Toyota's Lexus IS 250 Sedan with rear-wheel drive
Toyota's Lexus ES.

The year earlier GPAs are:

Acura RL: 2.67
Acura TL: 3.25
Lexus IS 250 with rwd: 2.50
Lexus ES: 3.50.

Two of the above are very modest.

Not making this year's upscale/luxury car list are Ford's Lincoln MKZ and its 4-cylinder Mercury Milan, both of which had 2010 GPAs of a perfect 4.00 last year.

In the category of larger wagons and minivans, the best is the V6, front-wheel-drive Toyota Sienna. The 2010 Reliability GPA of the front-wheel-drive Sienna for the 4 recent years is a more modest 3.00.

The 5 best small SUVs are:

Honda CR-V
Toyota RAV4 with a V6 engine
Mitsubishi Outlander
Toyota RAV4 with a 4-cylinder engine
Subaru Forester with a non-turbo engine.

The 2010 GPAs of these best for the 4 most recent model years are:

Honda CR-V: 3.75
Toyota RAV4 with a V6: 3.40
Mitsubishi Outlander: 3.00
Toyota RAV4 with a 4-cylinder: 3.75
Subaru Forester with a non-turbo engine: 4.00.

The 4-cylinder RAV4 and the Honda CR-V have outstanding 10-year mean GPAs of 3.88 and 3.63, respectively.

The 5 best midsize SUVs are:

Toyota FJ Cruiser
Toyota Highlander with a 4-cylinder engine
Toyota Highlander with a V6 engine
Hyundai Santa Fe with a V6 engine
Nissan Pathfinder.

The 2010 GPAs of these best for the 4 most recent model years are:

Toyota FJ Cruiser: 4.00
Toyota Highlander with a 4-cylinder engine: N/A
Toyota Highlander with a V6 engine: 3.75
Hyundai Santa Fe with a V6 engine: 2.75
Nissan Pathfinder: 1.67.

The V6 Toyota Highlander has an outstanding 10-year mean GPA of 3.94. The Pathfinder's jump to best from a very mediocre 2010 GPA suggests thin data making an accurate rating difficult.

The 3 best upscale/luxury SUVs are:

Toyota's Lexus LX
Honda's Acura RDX
Honda's Acura MDX.

The 2010 GPAs of these best for the 4 most recent model years are:

Toyota's Lexus LX: 3.67
Honda's Acura RDX: 3.33
Honda's Acura MDX: 3.50.

The Lexus LX has an excellent mean 10-year GPA of 3.79 for 2010; the MDX's is a more modest 3.31.

The 5 best pickup trucks are:

Toyota Tundra with a V6 engine
Honda Ridgeline
Nissan Frontier with 2-wheel drive
Ford Ranger with 2-wheel drive
Toyota Tundra with a V8 engine and 4-wheel drive.

The Ridgeline has a notable recent GPA of 3.75.

Car Reliability 2011 - Consumer Reports' Best Cars

Consumer Reports